Cancer Trends in Saudi Arabia: APC Analysis

The proposed study aims to analyze cancer trends in Saudi Arabia by examining the independent effects of age, period, and birth cohort. Using data from the Saudi Cancer Registry (1998–2017), we will apply Age-Period-Cohort (APC) Poisson regression to participants aged 15 years and older. The study will assess changes in age-specific cancer incidence, mortality, and prevalence, stratified by sex, providing a comprehensive overview of temporal patterns in cancer burden. Generational differences will be evaluated using five-year relative risk comparisons, contrasting recent birth cohorts with cohorts born 25 years earlier. Additionally, multiple projection models will be applied to estimate cancer incidence for the period 2026–2036, selecting the model with the best convergence to produce the most reliable forecasts.

This study is significant as it will identify emerging trends in cancer epidemiology in Saudi Arabia, highlighting populations at increasing risk, particularly among younger age groups. Insights from cohort analyses will inform targeted prevention strategies, early detection programs, and resource allocation for cancer care. By projecting future cancer burden, the study will provide critical evidence to guide public health planning and policy development. Ultimately, the findings are expected to enhance understanding of temporal and generational patterns in cancer, contributing to improved population health outcomes and more effective, evidence-based cancer control initiatives in the Kingdom.